Punjab Assembly 2022 – An opportunity for AAP and a warning bell for democracy

That the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will come to power in its second outing in Punjab had become an accepted fact within political and social circles for a while. The surveys by various media outlets and the internal surveys of political parties all revealed the AAP wave this time around in Punjab. Despite that, the BJP and Congress leaders maintained a defiant stance to keep their booth workers and cadres energized to give their best. What nobody predicted though was AAP's landslide victory, something that AAP has become famously accustomed to.

AAP won 92 of the 117 Assembly seats. 42% of all registered voters in Punjab voted for the Aam Aadmi Party. In comparison, the outgoing government of Congress managed just 18 seats with a vote share of 23%. The BJP, which joined hands with ex-Congress leader Capt. Amarinder Singh hoping to make a big dent could manage just 2 seats with a vote share of 6.6%.

What contributed to the sweep by AAP?

The shortest and quickest way to describe AAP’s huge victory is the people’s “need for change”. This does not necessarily mean “anti-incumbency” where people are looking to give another party a chance.

The “need for change” results from people’s helplessness and frustration with Punjab’s decline in almost every economic and social scale.

• Punjab’s outstanding liabilities have risen from ₹1.9 lakh crore in 2017-18 to an estimated ₹2.9 lakh crore in 2021-22. As a percentage of its GSDP, it has increased from 41.4% in 2017-18 to 53% in 2021-22 - the third highest amongst all states in India.
• Exports from Punjab have fallen from $5.8 billion in 2017-18 to $5.3 billion in 2020-21.
• The state of education and the schools, 69% of which are run by or aided by the government, remain in dire need of a revamp.
• The unemployment rate in Punjab is amongst the highest in all states in India. As per CMIE’s data for Feb’22, Punjab had an employment rate of 9% compared to the all-India average of 8.1%.
• The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) has fallen to 40% in Sep-Dec’21 from 43.6% in the corresponding period in 2017.
• The crime rate in Punjab has increased from 239.9 per lakh population in 2017 to 274.6 per lakh population in 2021

What people required in the prevailing situation was a stable government that portrayed an image of confidence and control over the economy. What was available instead was a fractured and almost non-existent leadership in Congress engaged in a musical chair for the CM’s position until 2 weeks before the election. The BJP ruled themselves out of any serious fight in Punjab with the introduction of the 3 Farm laws last year that saw farmers in Punjab camped at Delhi’s borders for a year. A last-ditch attempt with Amarinder Singh and the repeal of the laws was a case of too little too late. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) could not pull itself out of the acquired image of corruption and anti-development.

AAP captured the public sentiment effectively and portrayed a sense of stability that people were looking for. Never mind the theatrics, it announced Bhagwant Mann, a son of the soil, as the CM face who struck all the right chords with the electorate. The ground to strike was fertile and AAP did not miss its chance.

The opportunity and challenge for AAP

AAP has promised to replicate its Delhi model of governance and development in Punjab. It has made a slew of promises prior to elections that range from fiscal intervention to social upliftment.

On one hand, it has promised to reduce Punjab’s outstanding debt of ₹2.9 lakh crore. This will require a significant increase in its tax collections and a reduction in government costs. However, its range of socialist measures such as free water, electricity, schooling, in addition to the rebuilding of the education and health infrastructure will require significant funding, leaving no money for debt reduction. Over 40% of Punjab’s budget is allocated for debt servicing leaving little elbow-room for spending on the promises made. It remains to be seen how AAP will juggle these conflicting priorities. If it succeeds, it would have cemented its position as a national party and a serious threat to the BJP. If it fails, it will take down with it the slimmer of hope that it carries in having India resemble a democratic society with a strong Opposition.

The risk to democracy

The landslide victory of the AAP in Punjab which gives it almost 80% control in the Assembly presents the very same challenge that BJP poses to the democratic fabric of the country as a whole - that of a majoritarian party without a visible Opposition. In a democratic setup, it is imperative for the Opposition to have a credible voice for providing a check and balance to the ruling government. While the 2022 Punjab Assembly has Congress in the Opposition, it remains a feeble voice with just 15% of the seats in the Assembly.

The greater the power, the more dangerous the abuse. – Edmund Burke

AAP is not new to the highs of power as it had 96% control of the Delhi Assembly in 2015 and allowed BJP the seat of the Opposition party despite it having only a 4% representation in the Assembly. Whether AAP will succumb to the spoils of its ascending power in 2 of India’s most important states or use this as an opportunity to bring in a socio-economic change will remain to be seen. As for democracy, it will be waiting at the sidelines with a candle hoping that its flame remains burning bright and strong while power changes hands.